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Importance of realistic forecasts - Easter Egg Business

Mar 31, 2016

Importance of realistic forecasts - Easter Egg Business - Latest Advice from Wagner Mason

Billy Smith needs some help with his business planning and forecasting………….


Billy Smith’s Easter egg business has been overwhelmed since the start of March making up for a generally quiet 2015.

Smith said: “These Easter eggs are big business and can’t see this bubble bursting. To be completely honest we had a tough January and even worse February but overnight for some reason things turned around and right now each day is busier than the last.”

“Extrapolating the figures we have at the moment, by the middle of August we’ll be selling 5,000 Easter Eggs a day.”

Smith’s girlfriend said; “I tried to gently suggest that there might be a dip in sales pretty soon but Billy was too busy arranging to take delivery of a lorry load of Cadburys Button Eggs ready for the summer”.

Forecasts are important as they:

  • Allow you to set targets
  • Give you something to measure your actual performance against
  • Show whether the current course of action delivers the result that is required (in terms of sales, profits and cashflow)

To be useful though they need to be realistic and based on a basic understanding of the business.

The Easter egg business is a seasonal business so you can’t extrapolate the sales in March.